HIGH-FREQUENCY JUMP ANALYSIS OF THE BITCOIN MARKET
O. SCAILLET*, A. TRECCANI* and C. TREVISAN**
* Université de Genève and Swiss Finance Institute ** EPFL and Swiss Finance Institute
Abstract
We use the database leak of Mt. Gox exchange to analyze the dynamics of the price of
bitcoin from June 2011 to November 2013. This gives us a rare opportunity to study an
emerging retail-focused, highly speculative and unregulated market with trader identifiers
at a tick transaction level. Jumps are frequent events and they cluster in time. The order flow imbalance and the preponderance of aggressive traders, as well as a widening of the
bid-ask spread predict them. Jumps have short-term positive impact on market activity and
illiquidity and induce a persistent change in the price.
Keywords: jumps, liquidity, high-frequency data, bitcoin.
JEL: C58, G12, G14.